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Posts Tagged ‘advertising’

What will the Television watching experience be like in 5 years?

April 28, 2012 Leave a comment

I posted an answer on Quora.com recently in response to the following question:

Q. What will the Television watching experience be like in 5 years?
I sit on my couch with my phone in my hand and remote in the other, but still watch tv in the same way I did 15 years ago. With smart TV’s and users on the couch having smart phones, I imagine there is a lot of disruption and changes that will take place in this market.

A. “The passive lean-back experience at the heart of television watching has resisted many attempts to change it. It will remain at the core of watching and will not be replaced by viewers selecting the next video file every five minutes in the next five years. Even as digital video rises in advanced markets, television viewing is rising alongside it. The most evident support for this is that web players like Youtube and Yahoo are changing themselves to organize content into “channels” (sounds familiar?).

These days five years is too far out in tech terms to predict! However, there are trends that are influencing the mainstream television watching.

1) TV will continue to extend to multiple platforms: Tablets, consoles, web and mobile. This will make TV a more personal and portable experience since it will increase individual viewing rather than family-unit viewing. In Western markets this is already the norm, but in developing markets this will be a stronger influence.

2) Rise of the second screen and social communities: Consumers continue to multi-task while watching TV, but increasingly they will be looking at additional info to support their TV viewing. This will build communities around content in a new way that extends beyond broadcaster borders. TV has always been social and the subject of conversation. However, technology now means that the scale and reach of the conversation changes (from a few friends/colleagues to global discussions) and the speed of the discussion accelerates (from next-day to immediate).

3) Time-shifted viewing will dominate and begin to influence the broadcaster scheduling model and advertising formats. DVRs/ Network playback/ catch-up viewing online will encourage advertisers to focus on integration of brands within content rather than relying only on spots (but those will still be there in five years time).

4) New younger talent: New talent (actors/ writers) will reach the TV screen through discovery on the web (e.g. Youtube etc). Barriers to entry into the TV business for individuals will be lower. Some programs will be “hits” at a TV scale before they reach the TV screen.

The barriers to massive change in television watching are not technological but commercial and social. The technologies to change our tv viewing experience are already available but the entrenched advertising and subscription business models in markets like the US will continue to be a large hurdle against revolutionary change. On the social level, viewers still want to have a predominantly passive viewing experience rather than on-demand viewing. This may change as younger generations grow up without the habit of watching broadcast channels but five years is too soon for it to become mainstream.

TV watching will drastically change when someone figures out the perfect recommendation engine to line up programs selected from sources all over the web and at the same time untangles the complicated rights and window-release systems currently in place to free-up content while still able to finance its creation. But that’s a separate discussion altogether!

In summary, the TV watching experience will be more social, more suited to the viewer’s time, more integrated with advertising, more personal, more portable and will feature more on-screen talent.”

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In Search of A Sustainable Business Model

April 12, 2012 3 comments

(This is a copy of an article written for BroadcastPro)

On the surface, the free-to-air television sector in the Middle East is thriving. Viewing time is one of the highest in the world. Even in the turbulent political environment of 2011, research indicates that the advertising market has continued to grow. Hundreds of channels exist yet satellite operators can’t keep up with demand and continue to launch new satellites. International players such as Newscorp and Turner have made investments in Middle East media. The region’s population is growing rapidly and is very young by global standards, thus making it attractive for advertisers. The large number of broadcasters supports an eco-system of profitable entities ranging from international and regional production houses to infrastructure providers and media professionals.

In reality, a minuscule number of broadcasters are profitable. Ad figures are inflated by rate card monitoring that does not take into account regular heavy discounting. On a net basis, ad spend per capita is lower than global benchmarks. In the absence of a single regulatory body with authority over the many countries in the region, the advertising and broadcasting sectors are practically unregulated. In advertising, this has led to aggressive but not always transparent sales practices. In broadcasting, the lack of regulation has led to large discrepancies in the quality of content. Audience measurement is either non-existent or relies on antiquated methodologies.

The rapid development of satellite Direct-to-Home distribution, while a necessity in the past to avoid strict government control of the television sector, has come at a cost. Broadcasters and advertisers cannot target individual markets and therefore larger countries tend to get the lion’s share of television spend while local TV advertising budgets are diverted to newspapers.
Despite the lack of profits, new channels continue to launch, at times as misguided commercial ventures but mostly in pursuit of non-commercial goals. This is fine in a normal free market scenario, but with the lack of audience measurement and no regulation of the claims channels can make or how their advertising inventory is sold, the market becomes distorted. Its overall value is diminished as too many players are left chasing an undervalued advertising spend.

There is no short term solution or quick fix for the various issues afflicting the TV sector in the Middle East. Many are regulatory and related to the multi-country footprint of the sector and therefore cannot be easily resolved. Ultimately, the current key players in the Middle East’s television industry including broadcasters, advertisers, media buyers and sales representatives, are best positioned to improve its prospects by taking pragmatic steps to increase revenues, reduce costs, and support transparency.

Key actions include:

All parties should support the introduction of audience measurement tools. The UAE is the only major Middle East market that is close to launching people meters.

Broadcasters can increase their revenues if they work closely with advertisers. The evolved advertisers need to expand their arsenal beyond the 30-second spot to cut through the clutter. Yet currently the content development process at broadcasters barely involves their ultimate clients. If more budgets are to be allocated to TV, broadcasters must reach out to advertisers and seek to develop content that entertains audiences while integrating brands in a seamless non-intrusive manner.

Broadcasters should begin to shift their mindset to that of content owners and capitalise on new platforms to increase revenues: IPTV platforms are emerging in Saudi and other countries. OTT is a nascent but promising sector. Satellite operators are considering spot beams. YouTube viewing on mobile is one of the highest in the world. Broadband penetration is growing rapidly in key markets. All these platforms provide opportunities for content owners to create more relevant localised content, extend television brands onto the web and mobile, generate syndication and licensing revenues, or explore new advertising mechanisms.

Broadcasters can reduce content costs by sharing productions across markets or acquiring rights for smaller geographic territories. The pan-Arab channel is a convenient myth and very few channels can be both popular with audiences across all countries and be able to generate revenues from those countries.

Advertisers too must play a role in rewarding broadcasters that create premium content with verified audiences. In too many instances, the short term focus on reducing spot rates has led to a negative ripple effect across the advertising value chain.
The TV sector in the Middle East must repair its business model if it wants to sustain itself in the long term and attract investment on a commercially viable basis. Eventually, internal voluntary reform, if not exercised, will be replaced by externally imposed regulatory reform.

FREE is becoming more expensive

October 29, 2011 Leave a comment

Internet users expect free services and content. News, email, games and social networks are among the most popular “free” services. Initially, web sites simply wanted your page views to fuel their advertising income. Then they asked you for your email to send you newsletters with ads in them. As advertising became targeted, sites demanded more information such as gender, date of birth, address and credit card number. Then social networks exploded and we willingly handed over our entire lives and relationships. With the current advertising formats being rolled out on Facebook and Twitter, our thoughts and opinions have become the latest data sets for marketeers. Mobile surfing means our locations are now on offer as well.

If we measure the cost of “free” services to a user in terms of the volume of personal data that he or she needs to reveal, it is clear that the cost of Free has a very high inflation rate. “Data is the new oil” is now a conference PowerPoint cliché and consumers are the oil reserves.

Will this change? Is there a time where people will demand compensation for revealing their personal information or for receiving customised marketing messages?

The obvious answer is No. Anyone who thinks the opposite will likely be old enough to remember life before the Internet. Privacy is on a one way trip to extinction.

Don’t waste your time mourning the loss of privacy. Instead, think about how your business can benefit from it to better understand customers, tailor services and exceed expectations.

When will the web video sales horse catch up with the technology cart?

October 19, 2011 Leave a comment

At the medialive UAE conference yesterday, I listened with interest to a panel discussing how to generate revenues from the “new media ecosystem.” It quickly became apparent that several markets in the MENA region had reached the stage where the technology to generate revenues from web video was ready for prime time but was yet to make a significant impact because the business understanding and processes required were not yet mature. In other words, the “new media ecosystem” exists at a technology level but lacks a clear sales ecosystem to create value. There are now online video on-demand sites like istikana.com and online television channels like elgomhoreya.tv. YouTube reports rapidly growing MENA usage while regional variants like Ikbis have sprung up. Digital creative agencies like flip and nervora can help develop innovative advertising and engagement solutions.

Yet most advertisers who look at shifting marketing dollars to the web are presented with a now familiar list of top five sites with banner and CPM rates. If not that, then the now obligatory Facebook fan page for branding and interaction purposes is the default suggestion. Little effort is made to make use of the superior data that web campaigns can provide, which is surprising given the region’s lack of accurate advertising currencies and performance measurement.

Similarly content owners who make their content available online will find meager sums awaiting them. As a result, most seem to default to using the web as a branding and reach mechanism rather than a revenue generator.

The reasons for the business ecosystem lagging behind the technology are varied. Google’s representative on the new media ecosystem panel admitted they couldn’t generate revenues from YouTube in MENA because they did not yet have the right resources on the ground to do the selling. Clearly a global company will prioritise larger markets at the MENA region’s expense. For media buyers, even those with specialized digital units, the majority of their revenues is still tied to traditional media spend and traditional media economics. This in turn affects the number of staff and effort put into digital sales. For all its touted measurement capability, the MENA web does not have a standard audit body. Advertisers are sometimes more comfortable with the display-based advertising formats that more closely resemble what they are familiar with in print media. Broadband speeds are increasing by the day, but still vary wildly from one market to the other thereby limiting the reach of web video. Finally, even in mature markets, web video sites are struggling to equate the value of a web view of a video commercial with its more expensive television variant. When you consider that a consumer who does not click “skip” and chooses to watch a video advertisement is more engaged than a passive consumer watching television, it would seem the higher value attributed to TV viewing is partly influenced by the legacy of the industry’s development rather than statistics and data.

It is clear that web video advertising will continue to grow rapidly in the MENA region. To reach its full potential though,the sector needs changes in advertiser mindsets, media buyer economics and broadband infrastructure. That may sound like a tall order, but it is only a matter of time before the pieces click into place.

The Myth of Monitored Advertising Spend

October 29, 2010 1 comment

It is very common, when meeting with someone from a non-MENA media company, to hear them discuss the billions of dollars spent on advertising in the region. Based on these statistics, the uninitiated build unrealistic business plans or expect to license their content and channels at astronomical prices.

Businessmen from abroad are not the only ones to make the mistake of over-estimating the advertising spend in the region. Frequently, local newspapers will happily print articles about advertising spend and deduce quarterly or annual growth rates from them.

I wish these figures were true. The publishers of these articles fail to explain  that they calculate these figures by simply multiplying forms of advertising by the rate card of the media in which they appear. What they also don’t mention is that in some media, rate cards could be discounted as much as 80%. These figures then fail to take into account advertising inventory that is given away for free to sister companies or as incentives on media buys. These figures finally fail to mention that they do not include all forms of media.

While it is useful, at a very broad level, to look at monitored levels of advertising spend, it would be wrong to make any substantial business decisions based on them. Instead, researchers and companies should rely on knowledge gained from local partners to help them navigate the maze of advertising data before they can trust the numbers. It is the responsibility of the parties issuing these numbers to ensure they provide the proper disclaimers and explanations so as to avoid misleading readers.

Categories: Media Economics Tags: ,